Report P-3: Population Projections Race/Ethnicity and Sex by Individual Years of Age, 2010 to 2060
California (2019 Baseline)

Data Notes:
"The California Department of Finance (DOF), Demographic Research Unit is responsible by statute for maintaining postcensal population projections which are calculated using the demographic balancing equation:

Current Population = Previous Population + (Births - Deaths) +Net Migration

This method calculates the population in the target year by starting with the population from the previous year, adding natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration that occurred during the time period between the two years. The births, deaths, and migration anticipated during the time period are called the components of change. A cohort-component method traces people born in a given year throughout their lives. As each year passes, cohorts change due to the mortality and migration assumptions. Applying fertility assumptions to women of childbearing age forms new cohorts at age zero.

These 2019 baseline projections incorporate the latest historical population, birth, death, and migration data available as of July 1, 2020. Historical trends from 1990 through 2020 for births, deaths, and migration are examined. County populations by age, sex, and race/ethnicity are projected to 2060. The county projections are then summed to obtain data for the state. "

View the Methodology at: https://dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Projections/

Published by:
Demographic Research Unit
Department of Finance
Website: www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Projections/
Phone: 916-323-4086

Suggested Citation
California Department of Finance. Demographic Research Unit. Report P-3: Population Projections, California, 2010-2060 (Baseline 2019 Population Projections; Vintage 2020 Release). Sacramento: California. July 2021.

Data dictionary: https://dof.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/352/Forecasting/Demographics/Documents/P3_Dictionary.txt